Figure 1: Supermarket “Buy One Get
One Free” (BOGOF) promotion using prominent yellow price framing.
Source: Google Images (2026), search term
“BOGOF supermarket UK”.
The Hook
Imagine it is a rainy Wednesday
evening in Manchester. You walk into the Wilmslow Road Lidl needing only one
thing. But a shiny yellow sign intercepts you with a Buy One Get One Free
(BOGOF) offer. Minutes later, you are at the till with two packs of pasta, a
higher total bill, and a sense of confusion. This everyday scenario reflects a
national issue. In the UK, supermarkets are facing intense pressure from
environmental charities like WRAP to cancel BOGOF deals, which are blamed for
contributing to 10.7 million tonnes of national waste (WRAP, 2023). Why do we
keep falling for it? The answer lies at the intersection of microeconomics and
human psychology.
The
Rational Baseline
To understand why we
fall for these deals, we must look at the traditional economic benchmark for
human behaviour. In standard microeconomic theory, we assume that consumers are
rational agents, sometimes nicknamed Homo Economicus (Varian, 2014). This version
of a human acts like a logical computer that only cares about marginal utility,
which is extra satisfaction gained from consuming one more unit of a product.
When this rational robot
sees a BOGOF sign, they do not see a gift. They see a mathematical requirement
to buy two units at a 50% discount each. If they only need one pack of pasta
for dinner, the second free bag has zero marginal utility to them. Because the
rational agent is perfectly efficient, they would rather pay the lower price
for a single bag than spend more money to get two. They are immune to marketing
tricks because they focus strictly on their actual needs and the unit price.
The Realisation: Why
Free is a Psychological Magnet
However, most of us do
not shop like robots. Behavioural economics teaches us that humans have bounded
rationality, meaning our decision-making is limited by our emotions. This is
where the zero price effect comes into play. This is systematic bias, where the
presence of a free option completely distorts our ability to think clearly.
When a price drops to
zero, it is no longer just a low price. It becomes an emotional trigger. As Dan
Ariely (2008) explains, "free" creates an emotional charge that makes
us perceive the benefits of an item as much higher than they truly are. In a
famous experiment, consumers were offered a choice between a high-quality Lindt
truffle and a cheaper Hershey's Kiss. When both had a price, most chose the
Lindt. But the moment the Hershey's Kiss became free, the majority switched —
even though the price difference between the two remained exactly the same
(Shampanier, Mazar and Ariely, 2007). "Free" is a psychological
magnet that overrides original consumer preferences. In the context of BOGOF,
our brains stop calculating the actual cost and start focusing on the
excitement of receiving a gift.
Weaponising the Trigger:
The Art of the Frame
All of this depends on
how promotional offers are packaged, which is a concept known as the framing
effect. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman (2011) notes our brain operates at two
speeds, including the fast, impulsive System 1 and the slow, meticulous System
2. Imagine you are in a supermarket. A 50% off sign on the pasta forces your
brain to do the maths and activates your System 2, which asks if you actually
want to spend money on this right now. However, a BOGOF feels completely
different. It is framed as a pure, shiny gift.
By framing the second
bag as a gift, the supermarket slips right past your rational defences. Once
the offer is framed as a guaranteed win, another trap emerges called loss
aversion. Behavioural economics tells us that the pain of losing something is
roughly twice as much as the joy of getting it (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
You feel you are “losing” a free gift if you walk away. Once placed in your
trolley, the endowment effect kicks in, creating a sense of psychological
ownership that makes it nearly impossible to put back (Kahneman, Knetsch and
Thaler, 1990).
The
Hangover: Why Your Gift is a Global Problem
When that extra bag of pasta sits in
your cupboard for a year, it stops being a personal bargain and starts being an
economic disaster. In a perfect world, resources are only used to make things
that people actually value, which is known as allocative efficiency. However,
the free trap creates a massive market failure because it tricks us into taking
goods we do not actually need.
This impulsive shopping creates a
negative externality. While the supermarket makes a profit and you feel a
temporary win, society bears the hidden costs of the water, energy, and labour
used to produce, pack, and ship that wasted pasta. This stems from asymmetric
information (Akerlof, 1970); the retailer understands your psychological biases
better than you do, using that information to clear stock at your (and the
environment’s) expense. This leads to deadweight welfare loss, where the “gift”
reduces the total well-being of society.
The conclusion
So, how can we escape the BOGOF trap?
The key is learning to de-bias our brain before our impulsive System 1 takes
over. Next time you see the shiny yellow sign in the shop, ask whether you would still buy two if it were simply
half-price. If the answer is no, leave it on the shelf.
Figure 2: SU Essentials at the University of Manchester
Source: University of Manchester Students' Union (n.d.) essentials
Available at: https://manchesterstudentsunion.com/essentials/the-pantry
(Accessed: 17 April 2026)
Wait, what about when "Free"
is actually for a good cause? Programmes like the SU Essentials at the
University of Manchester offer free groceries to support students through the
cost-of-living crisis. While this is a vital financial lifeline, does the zero
price effect still lurk in the background? Even when items are provided by the
SU, could the lack of a price tag encourage us to take that extra tin of beans
"just because it's free," potentially leading to more waste in our
shared kitchens? It is a tricky balance, but by being mindful of our own
biases, we can ensure these great initiatives help our wallets without hurting
the environment. By making conscious choices, you stop funding deadweight loss
and cast a vote against those 10.7 million tonnes of waste (WRAP, 2023).
Reference
List
1. AAkerlof, G. (1970). The Market for Lemons: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84(3), pp.488-500.
Ariely,
D. (2008). Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our
Decisions. New York: HarperCollins.
Kahneman,
D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. London: Penguin Books.
Kahneman,
D., Knetsch, J.L. and Thaler, R.H. (1990). Experimental Tests of the Endowment
Effect and the Coase Theorem. Journal of Political Economy, 98(6),
pp.1325-1348.
Kahneman,
D. and Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.
Econometrica, 47(2), pp.263-291.
Shampanier,
K., Mazar, N. and Ariely, D. (2007). Zero as a Special Price: The True Value of
Free Products. Marketing Science, 26(6), pp.742-757.
Varian,
H.R. (2014). Intermediate Microeconomics: A Modern Approach. 9th ed. New
York: W.W. Norton & Company.
WRAP
(2023). Food surplus and waste in the UK – key facts. Available at: https://www.wrap.ngo/resources/report/uk-food-waste-food-surplus-key-facts
(Accessed: 10 April 2026).
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.